Ajax vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ajax v Willem II — Team-Based Signals
Ajax vs Willem II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Ajax
HOL
5-0
HT 3-0
Willem II
HOL
3-1
HT 0-0
Willem II
HOL
1-1
HT 0-1
Ajax
HOL
0-2
HT 0-1
Willem II
HOL
0-4
HT 0-2
Ajax
HOK
Ajax 1-0 Willem II — Actual Match Statistics
Ajax edged past Willem II 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.
On the day, Ajax had 60% of the ball to Willem II's 40%, shots finished 11-3, expected goals 1.87 to 0.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ajax's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Ajax and 0.67 for Willem II.
What was the final score of Ajax vs Willem II?
Ajax 1-0 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ajax vs Willem II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Ajax 62%, draw 21%, Willem II 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.