27/10/2024
·
19:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-3
2nd Score
0-3
Smiltene vs Super Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
19%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
35%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
5%
21%
Draw
9%
61%
Away Win
85%
43%
Under 2.5
30%
57%
Over 2.5
70%
49%
BTTS Yes
39%
51%
BTTS No
61%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Smiltene v Super Nova — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Smiltene
EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY
Super Nova
EU Bookmakers 91%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-2% /
-2%
0.73/3.44
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
3.01/0.69
-33%
/
-37%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+25%
/
+28%
42%
Ball Possession
58%
8
Total Shots
14
3
Shots on Target
6
3
Corners
7
238 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
284 · 84%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
Smiltene vs Super Nova Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Smiltene
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Super Nova
3.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Smiltene vs Super Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Super Nova ran out comfortable winners over Smiltene 4-0 away from home.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Super Nova as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Smiltene vs Super Nova?
Smiltene 0-4 Super Nova in the Latvia - 1st Division on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Smiltene vs Super Nova?
Before kick-off our model rated an Super Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 18%, draw 21%, Super Nova 61%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Super Nova), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Super Nova)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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LET1
More Latvia - 1st Division
27 Oct 2024