Deportivo Alaves II 1-2 Gernika — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.47
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.71
Over 2.5
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.27
No
50%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
13%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
64%
-13.2pp
29%
Draw
22%
+6.6pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
40%
+9.9pp
50%
BTTS No
60%
-9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves II EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Gernika EU Bookmakers 17%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.97/0.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/2.12
+13% / +93% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -31%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.0 Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves II
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Gernika
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.09.2023 Gernika Gernika 3-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II İS4
30.04.2023 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II 0-0 HT 0-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
17.12.2022 Gernika Gernika 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves II
1-2
AWAY Gernika
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves II vs Gernika
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gernika squeezed past Deportivo Alaves II 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Alaves II at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves II had 66% of the ball to Gernika's 34%, shots finished 15-12.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Gernika led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Deportivo Alaves II and 1.33 for Gernika.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves II vs Gernika?

Deportivo Alaves II 1-2 Gernika in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves II vs Gernika?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves II win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves II 50%, draw 29%, Gernika 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves II) ✗ Under 2.5
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