Lleida Esportiu 3-1 UD Alzira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
54%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.67
Over
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.19
No
51%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
41%
4-5
20%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Lleida Esportiu win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
60%
-5.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.4pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lleida Esportiu EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Alzira EU Bookmakers 20%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +11%
1.68/0.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.48
-4% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
331 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lleida Esportiu
1W-1D-1L
AWAY UD Alzira
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 UD Alzira UD Alzira 0-2 HT 0-1 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu İS4
01.04.2023 UD Alzira UD Alzira 2-2 HT 1-1 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu İS4
20.11.2022 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu 0-1 HT 0-1 UD Alzira UD Alzira İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lleida Esportiu
3-1
AWAY UD Alzira
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lleida Esportiu vs UD Alzira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lleida Esportiu saw off UD Alzira 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lleida Esportiu as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lleida Esportiu had 54% of the ball to UD Alzira's 46%, shots finished 19-5.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lleida Esportiu and 1.00 for UD Alzira.

What was the final score of Lleida Esportiu vs UD Alzira?

Lleida Esportiu 3-1 UD Alzira in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lleida Esportiu vs UD Alzira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lleida Esportiu win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lleida Esportiu 54%, draw 25%, UD Alzira 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lleida Esportiu) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lleida Esportiu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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