28/01/2024
·
18:45
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-0
Ourense CF vs Arandina Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
Over 2.5
43%
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
28%
Draw
29%
26%
Away Win
23%
46%
BTTS Yes
39%
54%
BTTS No
61%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ourense CF v Arandina — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Ourense CF
EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY
Arandina
EU Bookmakers 26%
+3% /
+3%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-15% /
-15%
1.59/0.62
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.24/2.26
+16%
/
+37%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+32%
/
-48%
55%
Ball Possession
45%
12
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Target
3
4
Corners
4
340 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
284 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
2.0
Yellow Cards
3.5
Ourense CF vs Arandina Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Ourense CF
0W-1D-0L
AWAY
Arandina
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
49%
Ball Possession
51%
9
Total Shots
13
1
Shots on Target
7
6
Corners
6
3
Yellow Cards
2
The Meetings
16.09.2023
Arandina
0-0
HT 0-0
Ourense CF
İS4
0-0
HT 0-0
Ourense CF
İS4
POST-MATCH
Ourense CF vs Arandina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Ourense CF got the better of Arandina 2-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Ourense CF as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Ourense CF vs Arandina?
Ourense CF 2-0 Arandina in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ourense CF vs Arandina?
Before kick-off our model rated a Ourense CF win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ourense CF 46%, draw 28%, Arandina 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ourense CF), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Ourense CF)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İS4
More Spain - 2nd Division RFEF
28 Jan 2024