Greuther Fürth 2-1 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 28 Jan 2024

Greuther Fürth
2-1 HT 0-0
Holstein Kiel
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.22
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.16
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.57
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
15%
4.63
X/2
12%
7.6
X/X
12%
5.24
2/1
9%
22.15
2/2
12%
5.16
2/X
9%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.5pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +29%
1.60/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.43
-12% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
21.3 Crosses 18.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8

Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greuther Fürth
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.60 xG 1.59
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
271 Passes 358
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.08.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-1 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
28.01.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-1 HT 0-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
16.07.2022 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-2 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
22.02.2021 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-1 HT 1-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
24.10.2020 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-3 HT 0-2 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
08.03.2020 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-1 HT 1-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2

Greuther Fürth 2-1 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greuther Fürth
2-1
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.64 xG 1.80
48% Ball Possession 52%
23 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 5
310 Passes 355
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greuther Fürth nicked a narrow win over Holstein Kiel 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Greuther Fürth as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Greuther Fürth had 48% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 52%, shots finished 23-11, expected goals 1.64 to 1.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Greuther Fürth and 1.50 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?

Greuther Fürth 2-1 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greuther Fürth win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Greuther Fürth 43%, draw 26%, Holstein Kiel 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Greuther Fürth), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Greuther Fürth) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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