Hamburg 3-4 Karlsruher SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 28 Jan 2024

Hamburg
3-4 HT 2-2
Karlsruher SC
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hamburg vs Karlsruher SC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.89
Over 2.5
58%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.91
2-3 Goals
35%
2.17
4-5 Goals
29%
2.46
6+ Goals
14%
4.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.88
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
17%
4.25
X/2
8%
11.35
X/X
10%
7.23
2/1
6%
18.4
2/2
7%
7.08
2/X
9%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
59%
-5.2pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.3pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+1.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
31%
+11.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
69%
-11.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.9pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hamburg v Karlsruher SC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Karlsruher SC EU Bookmakers 23%
-4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -12%
2.23/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.87
+7% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -16%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 75%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
21.8 Crosses 19.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Hamburg vs Karlsruher SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Karlsruher SC
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.77 xG 1.71
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
437 Passes 237
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
37 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.08.2023 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 2-2 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
12.03.2023 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 4-2 HT 3-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
03.09.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
16.04.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 3-0 HT 2-0 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
02.03.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 2-2 HT 0-1 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AFK
06.11.2021 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 1-1 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2

Hamburg 3-4 Karlsruher SC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
3-4
AWAY Karlsruher SC
2.51 xG 3.67
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 7
11 Corners 2
498 Passes 313
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
37 Box Touches 28
38 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Karlsruher SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karlsruher SC squeezed past Hamburg 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Hamburg at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hamburg had 60% of the ball to Karlsruher SC's 40%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 2.51 to 3.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hamburg and 1.50 for Karlsruher SC.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Karlsruher SC?

Hamburg 3-4 Karlsruher SC in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Karlsruher SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 54%, draw 24%, Karlsruher SC 22%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hamburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hamburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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