Newport County vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Newport County v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals
Newport County 2-4 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics
Manchester United saw off Newport County 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Manchester United as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Newport County had 29% of the ball to Manchester United's 71%, shots finished 17-22, expected goals 0.92 to 2.37.
What was the final score of Newport County vs Manchester United?
Newport County 2-4 Manchester United in the England - FA Cup on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Newport County vs Manchester United?
Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Newport County 20%, draw 21%, Manchester United 59%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.