Watford 1-1 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 28 Jan 2024

Watford
1-1 HT 1-0
Southampton
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Watford vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
37%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.15
Over 2.5
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
2.99
6+ Goals
9%
9.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.19 — our 29% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.87
1/2
6%
24.3
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
15%
6.04
X/2
15%
5.29
X/X
15%
5.24
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
16%
3.21
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.5pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-2.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+10.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-10.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Watford v Southampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Watford EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 43%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.48/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.32/0.93
+44% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +103%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 80%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
23.0 Crosses 18.4
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4

Watford vs Southampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Watford
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Southampton
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.95 xG 1.56
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
273 Passes 380
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Watford Watford 1-1 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
13.03.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 1-2 Watford Watford İNP
30.10.2021 Watford Watford 0-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
28.06.2020 Watford Watford 1-3 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
30.11.2019 Southampton Southampton 2-1 HT 0-1 Watford Watford İNP
23.04.2019 Watford Watford 1-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP

Watford 1-1 Southampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Watford
1-1
AWAY Southampton
0.88 xG 0.76
31% Ball Possession 69%
13 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
214 Passes 597
77% Pass Accuracy 91%
23 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Watford vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Watford and Southampton couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Watford had 31% of the ball to Southampton's 69%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 0.88 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Southampton led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Watford and 1.50 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Watford vs Southampton?

Watford 1-1 Southampton in the England - FA Cup on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Watford vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Watford 34%, draw 30%, Southampton 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Southampton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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