Ümraniyespor 1-1 Sakaryaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.81
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
9%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 29% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.92
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
9%
4.86
X/2
7%
6.68
X/X
14%
4.95
2/1
12%
24.3
2/2
18%
4.54
2/X
12%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-6.4pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.4pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.5pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 33%
+8% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +31%
1.71/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.35
+14% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
17.3 Crosses 14.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ümraniyespor
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Sakaryaspor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.75 xG 3.35
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
275 Passes 356
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 19
6 Yellow Cards 5
26.08.2023 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ümraniyespor
1-1
AWAY Sakaryaspor
0.30 xG 1.64
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 9
337 Passes 402
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 41
11 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ümraniyespor vs Sakaryaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor and Sakaryaspor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Ümraniyespor had 46% of the ball to Sakaryaspor's 54%, shots finished 8-21, expected goals 0.30 to 1.64.

What was the final score of Ümraniyespor vs Sakaryaspor?

Ümraniyespor 1-1 Sakaryaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ümraniyespor vs Sakaryaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ümraniyespor win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ümraniyespor 38%, draw 30%, Sakaryaspor 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ümraniyespor), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ümraniyespor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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