Basel 2-2 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Cup, 28 Feb 2024

Basel
2-2 HT 0-2
Lugano
📅28/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
41%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.28
2-3 Goals
32%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.6
6+ Goals
13%
14.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.6 — our 27% vs market 22.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.27
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
31.5
1/X
10%
13.15
X/1
13%
5.02
X/2
14%
6.09
X/X
8%
4.59
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
18%
4.29
2/X
8%
13.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.5 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
41%
-7.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
40%
Away Win
32%
+8.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.4pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +125% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
Crosses 7.0
Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lugano
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.45 xG 1.23
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
364 Passes 343
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.02.2024 Basel Basel 0-1 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
06.12.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-3 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
21.05.2023 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
26.02.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-2 HT 2-0 Basel Basel İSV
09.10.2022 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 1-0 Basel Basel İSV
14.08.2022 Basel Basel 0-2 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
2-2
AWAY Lugano
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Basel vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel and Lugano couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (34% / 25% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Basel had 50% of the ball to Lugano's 50%, shots finished 17-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Basel and 1.33 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Basel vs Lugano?

Basel 2-2 Lugano in the Switzerland - Cup on 28/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Basel 34%, draw 25%, Lugano 40%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lugano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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