Spezia 0-2 FeralpiSalo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 28 Feb 2024

Spezia
0-2 HT 0-1
FeralpiSalo
📅28/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Spezia vs FeralpiSalo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.74
Over 2.5
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.05
6+ Goals
8%
18.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 31% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.78
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
15%
4.44
X/2
11%
7.39
X/X
15%
4.2
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
10%
5.72
2/X
8%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+5.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-5.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.1pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Spezia v FeralpiSalo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY FeralpiSalo EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.36/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.79
-4% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
322 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
24.3 Crosses 14.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Spezia vs FeralpiSalo Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
1W-0D-0L
AWAY FeralpiSalo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.58 xG 0.61
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
304 Passes 280
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 21
6 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.09.2023 FeralpiSalo FeralpiSalo 1-2 HT 0-2 Spezia Spezia İTB

Spezia 0-2 FeralpiSalo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
0-2
AWAY FeralpiSalo
0.84 xG 0.84
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
454 Passes 198
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Spezia vs FeralpiSalo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FeralpiSalo got the better of Spezia 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Spezia at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Spezia had 67% of the ball to FeralpiSalo's 33%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 0.84 to 0.84.

What was the final score of Spezia vs FeralpiSalo?

Spezia 0-2 FeralpiSalo in the Italy - Serie B on 28/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs FeralpiSalo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Spezia 44%, draw 29%, FeralpiSalo 27%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Spezia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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