28/02/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
1-0
Arconatese vs Piacenza Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
Over
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
No Pick
55%
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
39%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 55% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
38%
Home Win
38%
24%
Draw
28%
38%
Away Win
33%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arconatese v Piacenza — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Arconatese
The Market 42%
Head to Head
AWAY
Piacenza
The Market 37%
-10% /
-10%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
+13%
/
-57%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
51%
Ball Possession
49%
10
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Target
3
5
Corners
4
303 · 73%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
333 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Arconatese vs Piacenza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Piacenza nicked a narrow win over Arconatese 2-1 away from home.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Piacenza made the difference. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Arconatese vs Piacenza?
Arconatese 1-2 Piacenza in the Italy - Serie D on 28/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arconatese vs Piacenza?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arconatese win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Arconatese 38%, draw 24%, Piacenza 38%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.
◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
28 Feb 2024