Sporting Charleroi 1-1 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 28 Feb 2025

Sporting Charleroi
1-1 HT 0-0
Genk
📅28/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2024/2025

Sporting Charleroi vs Genk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.2
2-3 Goals
36%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 30% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.9
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
14%
5.86
X/2
13%
5.64
X/X
8%
4.55
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
14%
3.67
2/X
10%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+4.5pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.7pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Charleroi v Genk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Charleroi EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.51/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/1.43
-2% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
290 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 68%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
17.0 Crosses 16.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

Sporting Charleroi vs Genk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Charleroi
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Genk
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.88 xG 2.17
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
290 Passes 418
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.11.2024 Genk Genk 3-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
23.02.2024 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 0-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
20.08.2023 Genk Genk 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
23.04.2023 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 2-2 HT 1-2 Genk Genk BEL
04.11.2022 Genk Genk 4-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
10.05.2022 Genk Genk 3-2 HT 0-1 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL

Sporting Charleroi 1-1 Genk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Charleroi
1-1
AWAY Genk
2.13 xG 1.43
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
312 Passes 488
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Charleroi vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Charleroi and Genk couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 24% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sporting Charleroi had 41% of the ball to Genk's 59%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.13 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sporting Charleroi and 2.17 for Genk.

What was the final score of Sporting Charleroi vs Genk?

Sporting Charleroi 1-1 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 28/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Charleroi vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Charleroi win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sporting Charleroi 40%, draw 24%, Genk 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting Charleroi) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Charleroi) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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