Istra 1961 3-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 28 Feb 2025

📅28/02/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.33
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.3
6+ Goals
9%
22.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
39%
-3.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.7pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 36%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +18%
1.19/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.13
-7% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
276 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 77%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
16.0 Crosses 18.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.91 xG 1.07
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
268 Passes 290
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-2 HT 0-2 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
14.09.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
29.03.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
16.12.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-0 HT 1-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
02.10.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-4 HT 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
23.07.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
3-2
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.49 xG 2.30
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
335 Passes 259
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 squeezed past Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Istra 1961 made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Istra 1961 had 55% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 45%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.49 to 2.30 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lokomotiva Zagreb.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.83 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Istra 1961 3-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 28/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a Istra 1961 win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 35%, draw 30%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 35%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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