Millonarios 3-1 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 28 Mar 2024

📅28/03/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
Over 2.5
36%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.0pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.4pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.4pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millonarios EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.26/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.14
+8% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
313 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
15.2 Crosses 16.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millonarios
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Santa Fe
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.45 xG 1.16
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
332 Passes 253
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
22.10.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-3 HT 1-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
11.09.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 2-4 HT 1-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
08.05.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-0 HT 1-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
27.03.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-2 HT 1-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
01.12.2022 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-1 HT 0-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
07.11.2022 Millonarios Millonarios 1-1 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millonarios
3-1
AWAY Santa Fe
0.37 xG 1.91
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 7
208 Passes 173
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
11 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Millonarios vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millonarios saw off Santa Fe 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Millonarios as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Millonarios had 52% of the ball to Santa Fe's 48%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.37 to 1.91 — on chances, Santa Fe could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Millonarios and 1.50 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Millonarios vs Santa Fe?

Millonarios 3-1 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 28/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millonarios vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millonarios win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Millonarios 41%, draw 33%, Santa Fe 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millonarios) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Millonarios) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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