Spezia 0-1 Brescia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.95
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.81
6+ Goals
10%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 31% vs market 27.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.09
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.0
X/1
13%
4.11
X/2
9%
10.9
X/X
14%
4.8
2/1
11%
26.0
2/2
8%
9.42
2/X
5%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-4.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.3pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Brescia EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.97/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.40
-1% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +16%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
430 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 73%
32.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
28.1 Crosses 18.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Brescia
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.97 xG 1.48
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
298 Passes 343
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2024 Brescia Brescia 1-1 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
27.04.2024 Brescia Brescia 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
26.09.2023 Spezia Spezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
19.10.2022 Spezia Spezia 3-1 HT 1-0 Brescia Brescia İTK
27.01.2019 Brescia Brescia 4-4 HT 2-2 Spezia Spezia İTB
01.09.2018 Spezia Spezia 3-2 HT 2-2 Brescia Brescia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
0-1
AWAY Brescia
1.78 xG 1.65
71% Ball Possession 29%
26 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
16 Corners 2
356 Passes 106
82% Pass Accuracy 56%
49 Box Touches 15
60 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Brescia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brescia squeezed past Spezia 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Spezia at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Spezia had 71% of the ball to Brescia's 29%, shots finished 26-13, expected goals 1.78 to 1.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Spezia and 1.33 for Brescia.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Brescia?

Spezia 0-1 Brescia in the Italy - Serie B on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Brescia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Spezia 53%, draw 25%, Brescia 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Spezia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →