Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Bochum — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.27
Draw
23%
5.28
Away
18%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.42
2-3 Goals
41%
2.02
4-5 Goals
25%
2.61
6+ Goals
14%
6.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.41
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
23.3
X/1
18%
3.87
X/2
5%
23.3
X/X
12%
9.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.9
2/2
8%
19.8
2/X
6%
27.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.9 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Bayer Leverkusen win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
74%
-16.0pp
23%
Draw
16%
+7.2pp
18%
Away Win
10%
+8.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.8pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Bochum EU Bookmakers 12%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
2.18/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/2.58
-4% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -7%
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
528 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 76%
36.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
21.2 Crosses 14.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bochum
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.12 xG 0.69
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
471 Passes 234
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
29 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2024 Bochum Bochum 1-1 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
12.05.2024 Bochum Bochum 0-5 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
20.12.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 HT 3-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
27.05.2023 Bochum Bochum 3-0 HT 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
25.01.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 HT 1-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
10.04.2022 Bochum Bochum 0-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3-1
AWAY Bochum
1.97 xG 0.48
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
611 Passes 270
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Bochum
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen beat Bochum 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 66% of the ball to Bochum's 34%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.97 to 0.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.67 for Bochum.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Bochum?

Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Bochum in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Bochum?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 58%, draw 23%, Bochum 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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