Ulm 1846 2-1 Darmstadt 98 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.31
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.45 — our 24% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.58
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
26.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
15%
6.59
X/2
13%
5.28
X/X
9%
4.66
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
21%
3.24
2/X
8%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Darmstadt 98 EU Bookmakers 45%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.15/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.31
-38% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 75%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
15.6 Crosses 16.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ulm 1846
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Darmstadt 98
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.67 xG 0.88
31% Ball Possession 69%
6 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
217 Passes 579
73% Pass Accuracy 89%
13 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 1-1 HT 1-1 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ulm 1846
2-1
AWAY Darmstadt 98
1.25 xG 1.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
254 Passes 274
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 17
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ulm 1846 vs Darmstadt 98
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulm 1846 nicked a narrow win over Darmstadt 98 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Darmstadt 98 at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ulm 1846 had 49% of the ball to Darmstadt 98's 51%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 1.25 to 1.73 — the balance of chances actually favoured Darmstadt 98.

What was the final score of Ulm 1846 vs Darmstadt 98?

Ulm 1846 2-1 Darmstadt 98 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ulm 1846 vs Darmstadt 98?

Before kick-off our model rated an Darmstadt 98 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ulm 1846 31%, draw 26%, Darmstadt 98 42%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Darmstadt 98) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Darmstadt 98) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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