Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 2-1 Spartak Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.71
Over 2.5
37%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
55%
+8.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
45%
-8.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.8pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 31%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.60/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.74
-53% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -41%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Spartak Varna
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 3-2 HT 1-2 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 BUL1
18.11.2023 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 0-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BULK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
2-1
AWAY Spartak Varna
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Spartak Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 edged past Spartak Varna 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 had 46% of the ball to Spartak Varna's 54%, shots finished 12-7.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Spartak Varna led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 and 1.50 for Spartak Varna.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Spartak Varna?

Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 2-1 Spartak Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Spartak Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 40%, draw 28%, Spartak Varna 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Sofia 1929) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Sofia 1929) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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