Mathare United 2-1 TransMara Sugar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 28 Mar 2025

Mathare United
2-1 HT 0-1
TransMara Sugar
📅28/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Kenya - Premier League – 2025/2026

Mathare United vs TransMara Sugar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
Over 2.5
36%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
19%
2/1
12%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.9pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+6.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.9pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mathare United v TransMara Sugar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mathare United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 28%
-58% / -58% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.50
-100% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +60% / -40%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
362 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Mathare United vs TransMara Sugar Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mathare United
0W-0D-1L
AWAY TransMara Sugar
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
The Meetings
18.01.2025 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar 3-0 HT 2-0 Mathare United Mathare United KEN

Mathare United 2-1 TransMara Sugar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mathare United
2-1
AWAY TransMara Sugar
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mathare United vs TransMara Sugar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mathare United edged past TransMara Sugar 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mathare United as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mathare United had 54% of the ball to TransMara Sugar's 46%, shots finished 16-18.

What was the final score of Mathare United vs TransMara Sugar?

Mathare United 2-1 TransMara Sugar in the Kenya - Premier League on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mathare United vs TransMara Sugar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mathare United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mathare United 41%, draw 29%, TransMara Sugar 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mathare United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mathare United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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