Leevon / PPK 0-1 Ogre United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
46%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
24%
+4.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.2pp
46%
Away Win
53%
-7.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.5pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leevon / PPK EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Ogre United EU Bookmakers 57%
-40% / -40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.00/3.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 4.00/1.00
-4% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +139% / +14%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
248 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leevon / PPK
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Ogre United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
23.08.2024 Leevon / PPK Leevon / PPK 1-1 HT 0-1 Ogre United Ogre United LET1
28.04.2024 Ogre United Ogre United 0-1 Leevon / PPK Leevon / PPK LET1
POST-MATCH Leevon / PPK vs Ogre United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ogre United edged past Leevon / PPK 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ogre United as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Leevon / PPK had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Leevon / PPK and 0.50 for Ogre United.

What was the final score of Leevon / PPK vs Ogre United?

Leevon / PPK 0-1 Ogre United in the Latvia - 1st Division on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leevon / PPK vs Ogre United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ogre United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Leevon / PPK 28%, draw 26%, Ogre United 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ogre United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ogre United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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