Gil Vicente 0-3 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
6.35
Draw
27%
4.49
Away
52%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.57
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.25
6+ Goals
9%
11.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
14.45
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.75
1/X
7%
23.3
X/1
9%
16.0
X/2
17%
3.74
X/X
11%
6.48
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
25%
1.65
2/X
9%
19.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.75 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
13%
+8.2pp
27%
Draw
19%
+7.4pp
52%
Away Win
68%
-15.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 71%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -26%
0.96/1.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/0.88
+5% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -7%
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
224 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 433 · 83%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
13.9 Crosses 20.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gil Vicente
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Benfica
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.78 xG 2.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
382 Passes 436
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 38
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2024 Benfica Benfica 5-1 HT 2-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
04.02.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
26.08.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-3 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
29.04.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-2 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
13.11.2022 Benfica Benfica 3-1 HT 2-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
02.02.2022 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 0-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
0-3
AWAY Benfica
0.23 xG 2.80
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 2
353 Passes 508
84% Pass Accuracy 89%
7 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica ran out comfortable winners over Gil Vicente 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 43% of the ball to Benfica's 57%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 0.23 to 2.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gil Vicente and 2.83 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Benfica?

Gil Vicente 0-3 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 21%, draw 27%, Benfica 52%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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