Aluminij 5-0 Tolmin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 2.SNL, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.32
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
21%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
71%
-15.5pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.3pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+10.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.6pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aluminij EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Tolmin EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.98/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.86
+7% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +0%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
411 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aluminij
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Tolmin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
14.09.2024 Tolmin Tolmin 0-1 HT 0-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aluminij
5-0
AWAY Tolmin
63% Ball Possession 37%
21 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aluminij vs Tolmin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aluminij ran out comfortable winners over Tolmin 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aluminij as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Aluminij had 63% of the ball to Tolmin's 37%, shots finished 21-6.

What was the final score of Aluminij vs Tolmin?

Aluminij 5-0 Tolmin in the Slovenia - 2.SNL on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aluminij vs Tolmin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aluminij win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Aluminij 56%, draw 23%, Tolmin 21%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aluminij), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aluminij) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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