Bournemouth 3-0 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 28 Apr 2024

Bournemouth
3-0 HT 1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.61
Over 2.5
51%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.41
No
50%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
6.05
2-3 Goals
39%
2.08
4-5 Goals
24%
2.56
6+ Goals
11%
5.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.05 — our 26% vs market 12.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.56
1/2
5%
29.0
1/X
8%
12.8
X/1
11%
4.97
X/2
13%
7.61
X/X
10%
6.23
2/1
7%
20.45
2/2
15%
4.58
2/X
8%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
35%
+14.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
65%
-14.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
67%
-16.6pp
50%
BTTS No
33%
+16.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bournemouth v Brighton & Hove Albion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 32%
+10% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.35/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.20
+5% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
387 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
19.1 Crosses 16.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6

Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bournemouth
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.41 xG 1.67
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
269 Passes 476
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.09.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 3-1 HT 1-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
04.04.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-2 HT 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
04.02.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
21.01.2020 Bournemouth Bournemouth 3-1 HT 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
28.12.2019 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 2-0 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
13.04.2019 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-5 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP

Bournemouth 3-0 Brighton & Hove Albion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bournemouth
3-0
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
30% Ball Possession 70%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
185 Passes 539
74% Pass Accuracy 89%
POST-MATCH Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bournemouth ran out comfortable winners over Brighton & Hove Albion 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bournemouth as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bournemouth had 30% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 70%, shots finished 15-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brighton & Hove Albion led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bournemouth and 1.50 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Bournemouth 3-0 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 42%, draw 25%, Brighton & Hove Albion 33%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bournemouth), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
28 Apr 2024
16:00 Tottenham vs Arsenal Analysis →
18:30 Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City Analysis →