Djurgarden 1-0 GAIS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.97
Over 2.5
58%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.81
No
42%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.63
2-3 Goals
34%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
3.33
6+ Goals
12%
12.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.33 — our 31% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.1
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.5
X/1
17%
3.98
X/2
7%
10.3
X/X
10%
5.16
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.15
2/2
12%
7.93
2/X
8%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-7.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+5.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
47%
-4.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
53%
+4.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
51%
+7.2pp
42%
BTTS No
49%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Djurgarden EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY GAIS EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -7%
1.51/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/0.47
+10% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
375 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 78%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
24.9 Crosses 21.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Djurgarden
2W-3D-1L
AWAY GAIS
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
22.10.2012 Djurgarden Djurgarden 3-0 HT 0-0 GAIS GAIS İSÇ
11.04.2012 GAIS GAIS 0-0 HT 0-0 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇ
07.08.2011 Djurgarden Djurgarden 2-2 HT 0-1 GAIS GAIS İSÇ
19.04.2011 GAIS GAIS 2-1 HT 1-1 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇ
27.08.2010 GAIS GAIS 0-1 HT 0-1 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇ
06.05.2010 Djurgarden Djurgarden 1-1 HT 1-0 GAIS GAIS İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Djurgarden
1-0
AWAY GAIS
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Djurgarden vs GAIS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Djurgarden edged past GAIS 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Djurgarden as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Djurgarden had 56% of the ball to GAIS's 44%, shots finished 10-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Djurgarden had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Djurgarden and 0.83 for GAIS.

What was the final score of Djurgarden vs GAIS?

Djurgarden 1-0 GAIS in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Djurgarden vs GAIS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Djurgarden win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Djurgarden 49%, draw 26%, GAIS 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Djurgarden) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Djurgarden) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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