Darmstadt 98 0-1 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
9.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.13 — our 27% vs market 19.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.46
1/2
8%
23.6
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
15%
6.72
X/2
11%
4.95
X/X
9%
5.2
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
21%
2.91
2/X
11%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+1.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.8pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Darmstadt 98 EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 48%
-9% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-34% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
340 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
13.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.2 Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Darmstadt 98
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Heidenheim
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.55 xG 1.74
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
300 Passes 255
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
23 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 3-2 HT 1-0 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL1
04.03.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-0 HT 0-0 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL2
27.08.2022 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 2-2 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
04.03.2022 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 3-2 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
24.09.2021 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 1-0 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL2
16.05.2021 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 5-1 HT 2-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Darmstadt 98
0-1
AWAY Heidenheim
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
291 Passes 345
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
POST-MATCH Darmstadt 98 vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim nicked a narrow win over Darmstadt 98 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Heidenheim as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Darmstadt 98 had 46% of the ball to Heidenheim's 54%, shots finished 11-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidenheim led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Darmstadt 98 and 1.83 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Darmstadt 98 vs Heidenheim?

Darmstadt 98 0-1 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Darmstadt 98 vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated an Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Darmstadt 98 33%, draw 26%, Heidenheim 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heidenheim) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✗ Over 2.5
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