Mainz 05 vs Köln Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mainz 05 v Köln — Team-Based Signals
Mainz 05 vs Köln Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Mainz 05
AL1
1-1
HT 0-1
Mainz 05
AL1
5-0
HT 3-0
Köln
AL1
3-2
HT 0-1
Mainz 05
AL1
1-1
HT 1-0
Köln
AL1
2-3
HT 1-1
Mainz 05
AL1
Mainz 05 1-1 Köln — Actual Match Statistics
Mainz 05 and Köln shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Mainz 05 at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Mainz 05 had 39% of the ball to Köln's 61%, shots finished 16-17.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.17 for Köln.
What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Köln?
Mainz 05 1-1 Köln in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Köln?
Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 55%, draw 25%, Köln 21%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.