Kopenhag 3-2 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.42
Draw
28%
4.19
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.09
No
50%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.37
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.74
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.45
X/1
14%
3.42
X/2
7%
14.4
X/X
12%
5.81
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
8%
12.35
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
20.55
Value flag · 2/X at 20.55 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
66%
-15.9pp
28%
Draw
21%
+7.3pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+8.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.2pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kopenhag EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 16%
+2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.90/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.44
+2% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
427 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
20.2 Crosses 15.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kopenhag
3W-2D-1L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 1.10
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
466 Passes 304
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Kopenhag Kopenhag 1-2 HT 0-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
08.10.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-0 Kopenhag Kopenhag DAN
21.05.2023 Kopenhag Kopenhag 4-3 HT 2-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
23.04.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-0 HT 0-0 Kopenhag Kopenhag DAN
13.11.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-2 HT 0-0 Kopenhag Kopenhag DAN
02.10.2022 Kopenhag Kopenhag 1-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
POST-MATCH Kopenhag vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kopenhag squeezed past AGF Aarhus 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kopenhag as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kopenhag had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kopenhag and 1.00 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Kopenhag vs AGF Aarhus?

Kopenhag 3-2 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kopenhag vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kopenhag win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Kopenhag 50%, draw 28%, AGF Aarhus 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kopenhag) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kopenhag) ✗ Under 2.5
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