Connahs Quay 2-1 The New Saints — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Welsh Cup, 28 Apr 2024

Connahs Quay
2-1 HT 2-1
The New Saints
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒19:25 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Wales - Welsh Cup – 2023/2024

Connahs Quay vs The New Saints Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
6.35
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
56%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.59
Over 2.5
62%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
21%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
13%
+9.9pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.0pp
56%
Away Win
70%
-14.9pp
38%
Under 2.5
35%
+3.5pp
62%
Over 2.5
65%
-3.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.0pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Connahs Quay v The New Saints — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY The New Saints EU Bookmakers 75%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +60% / -12%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
311 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 1.4

Connahs Quay vs The New Saints Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
0W-1D-5L
AWAY The New Saints
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
21.04.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 2-0 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
08.03.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-5 HT 0-4 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
31.12.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-4 HT 0-3 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
11.08.2023 The New Saints The New Saints 6-2 HT 3-2 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
05.08.2023 The New Saints The New Saints 2-1 HT 2-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GALLK
17.03.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-0 HT 0-0 The New Saints The New Saints GAL

Connahs Quay 2-1 The New Saints — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Connahs Quay
2-1
AWAY The New Saints
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 10
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs The New Saints
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay squeezed past The New Saints 2-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had The New Saints at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Connahs Quay had 39% of the ball to The New Saints's 61%, shots finished 7-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, The New Saints led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Connahs Quay and 3.17 for The New Saints.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs The New Saints?

Connahs Quay 2-1 The New Saints in the Wales - Welsh Cup on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs The New Saints?

Before kick-off our model rated an The New Saints win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 23%, draw 22%, The New Saints 56%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (The New Saints) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (The New Saints) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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