Gyeongju HNP 1-2 Ulsan Citizen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K3 League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.72
Draw
34%
3.54
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
54%
-11.8pp
34%
Draw
25%
+9.0pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gyeongju HNP EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Ulsan Citizen EU Bookmakers 23%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.43/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.36
-15% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
426 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gyeongju HNP
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Ulsan Citizen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
01.07.2023 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP 0-0 HT 0-0 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen GK3L
18.03.2023 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen 2-1 HT 1-1 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP GK3L
20.08.2022 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP 2-0 HT 1-0 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen GK3L
23.04.2022 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen 1-2 HT 0-1 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP GK3L
15.09.2021 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen 1-1 HT 0-0 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP GK3L
16.05.2021 Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP 2-2 HT 1-0 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen GK3L
POST-MATCH Gyeongju HNP vs Ulsan Citizen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulsan Citizen edged past Gyeongju HNP 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Gyeongju HNP at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gyeongju HNP had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gyeongju HNP and 1.00 for Ulsan Citizen.

What was the final score of Gyeongju HNP vs Ulsan Citizen?

Gyeongju HNP 1-2 Ulsan Citizen in the South Kore - K3 League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gyeongju HNP vs Ulsan Citizen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gyeongju HNP win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gyeongju HNP 43%, draw 34%, Ulsan Citizen 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gyeongju HNP) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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