HNK Gorica 0-3 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 28 Apr 2024

HNK Gorica
0-3 HT 0-1
Osijek
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2023/2024

HNK Gorica vs Osijek Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
44%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.17
6+ Goals
8%
20.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 31% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
24%
+3.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.1pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

HNK Gorica v Osijek — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 52%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
0.99/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.33
+5% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -7%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
227 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
16.9 Crosses 16.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

HNK Gorica vs Osijek Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Osijek
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.84 xG 1.22
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
220 Passes 324
64% Pass Accuracy 70%
14 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.02.2024 Osijek Osijek 3-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
04.11.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 3-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
20.08.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
08.04.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
29.01.2023 Osijek Osijek 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
17.09.2022 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-1 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek swept aside HNK Gorica 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Osijek as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.17 for Osijek.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Osijek?

HNK Gorica 0-3 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated an Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 27%, draw 29%, Osijek 44%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osijek), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Osijek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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