Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.71
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
49%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.82
Over 2.5
42%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.2
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.67
6+ Goals
9%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 30% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
6%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
18%
+7.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
49%
Away Win
57%
-8.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.6pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 61%
+12% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.06/1.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.84
+12% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +17%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
246 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 79%
14.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
15.2 Crosses 18.3
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Rijeka
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.94 xG 1.31
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
306 Passes 266
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.04.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIRK
17.02.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 4-0 HT 2-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
03.11.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
20.08.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-1 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
27.04.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
18.02.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-2 HT 0-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
3-1
AWAY Rijeka
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb beat Rijeka 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Rijeka at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 39% of the ball to Rijeka's 61%, shots finished 10-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 2.00 for Rijeka.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rijeka?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 26%, draw 25%, Rijeka 49%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rijeka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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