NEC Nijmegen 0-3 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 28 Apr 2024

NEC Nijmegen
0-3 HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.94
Draw
18%
3.64
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.16
6+ Goals
15%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.66
1/2
9%
23.15
1/X
6%
14.05
X/1
11%
6.72
X/2
12%
4.64
X/X
8%
5.37
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
31.5
2/2
22%
2.8
2/X
5%
13.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.5 — our 9% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
30%
+8.0pp
18%
Draw
24%
-5.9pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.9pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 49%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
1.50/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.32
+3% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
321 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 78%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
17.0 Crosses 16.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.77 xG 1.82
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 10
284 Passes 549
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 41
13 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.12.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
29.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
21.05.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-3 HT 0-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
01.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
06.03.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-3 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
20.11.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

NEC Nijmegen 0-3 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
0-3
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
434 Passes 361
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar swept aside NEC Nijmegen 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 18% / 43%) promised a tight game; AZ Alkmaar found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 54% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 46%, shots finished 14-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar?

NEC Nijmegen 0-3 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 38%, draw 18%, AZ Alkmaar 43%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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