PEC Zwolle 3-1 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.85
6+ Goals
11%
7.92
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.7 — our 25% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.79
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
16%
4.93
X/2
10%
6.92
X/X
13%
5.62
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
15%
4.44
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-12.0pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -21%
1.55/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.46
-29% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
22.3 Crosses 16.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Heracles
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.33 xG 1.77
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
335 Passes 289
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2023 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
15.01.2023 Heracles Heracles 0-3 HT 0-3 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL2
14.10.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-2 HT 3-1 Heracles Heracles HOL2
26.02.2022 Heracles Heracles 2-0 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
23.10.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
07.08.2021 Heracles Heracles 3-1 HT 1-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
3-1
AWAY Heracles
52% Ball Possession 48%
22 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 8
312 Passes 279
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PEC Zwolle as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 52% of the ball to Heracles's 48%, shots finished 22-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.50 for Heracles.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?

PEC Zwolle 3-1 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a PEC Zwolle win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 42%, draw 28%, Heracles 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PEC Zwolle), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PEC Zwolle) ✓ Over 2.5
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