Matsumoto Yamaga 3-1 Kataller Toyama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.3pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.0pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kataller Toyama EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
1.11/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.37
-16% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
260 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Kataller Toyama
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
12.08.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 HT 0-0 Kataller Toyama Kataller Toyama JAP3
29.04.2023 Kataller Toyama Kataller Toyama 3-0 HT 2-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
06.11.2022 Kataller Toyama Kataller Toyama 4-3 HT 2-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
09.07.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 1-0 Kataller Toyama Kataller Toyama JAP3
26.10.2014 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 HT 0-0 Kataller Toyama Kataller Toyama JAP2
29.04.2014 Kataller Toyama Kataller Toyama 3-2 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
3-1
AWAY Kataller Toyama
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kataller Toyama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga got the better of Kataller Toyama 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Matsumoto Yamaga found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 49% of the ball to Kataller Toyama's 51%, shots finished 8-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kataller Toyama led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 2.00 for Kataller Toyama.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kataller Toyama?

Matsumoto Yamaga 3-1 Kataller Toyama in the Japan - J3 League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kataller Toyama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 38%, draw 29%, Kataller Toyama 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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