Nojima Stella (K) 2-1 Cerezo Osaka (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - WE League Women's, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.68
Over 2.5
53%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
31%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+4.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-5.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nojima Stella (K) EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka (K) EU Bookmakers 50%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+12% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
223 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Nojima Stella (K) vs Cerezo Osaka (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nojima Stella (K) squeezed past Cerezo Osaka (K) 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka (K) at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

What was the final score of Nojima Stella (K) vs Cerezo Osaka (K)?

Nojima Stella (K) 2-1 Cerezo Osaka (K) in the Japan - WE League Women's on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nojima Stella (K) vs Cerezo Osaka (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nojima Stella (K) 31%, draw 28%, Cerezo Osaka (K) 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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