Parceiro Nagano (K) 1-1 AS Elfen Saitama (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - WE League Women's, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.67
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
50%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
3%
2/2
31%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.9pp
21%
Draw
26%
-5.4pp
50%
Away Win
40%
+9.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parceiro Nagano (K) EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY AS Elfen Saitama (K) EU Bookmakers 45%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
1.03/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
+3% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
278 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Parceiro Nagano (K) vs AS Elfen Saitama (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parceiro Nagano (K) and AS Elfen Saitama (K) shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was AS Elfen Saitama (K) at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

What was the final score of Parceiro Nagano (K) vs AS Elfen Saitama (K)?

Parceiro Nagano (K) 1-1 AS Elfen Saitama (K) in the Japan - WE League Women's on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parceiro Nagano (K) vs AS Elfen Saitama (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an AS Elfen Saitama (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Parceiro Nagano (K) 30%, draw 21%, AS Elfen Saitama (K) 50%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AS Elfen Saitama (K)) ✗ Over 2.5
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