Gombe United 3-2 Lobi Stars — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.91
Draw
23%
3.04
Away
57%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
2.15
Over 2.5
31%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.33
No
66%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
48%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
4%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
32%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
14%
+5.8pp
23%
Draw
30%
-6.8pp
57%
Away Win
56%
+0.8pp
69%
Under 2.5
43%
+26.1pp
31%
Over 2.5
57%
-26.1pp
34%
BTTS Yes
39%
-4.6pp
66%
BTTS No
61%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gombe United EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobi Stars EU Bookmakers 59%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 4
170 · 62% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gombe United
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Lobi Stars
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
06.12.2023 Lobi Stars Lobi Stars 1-0 HT 1-0 Gombe United Gombe United NIJ
03.01.2022 Gombe United Gombe United 3-0 HT 0-0 Lobi Stars Lobi Stars NIJ
POST-MATCH Gombe United vs Lobi Stars
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gombe United nicked a narrow win over Lobi Stars 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Lobi Stars carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (66%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gombe United and 0.50 for Lobi Stars.

What was the final score of Gombe United vs Lobi Stars?

Gombe United 3-2 Lobi Stars in the Nigeria NPFL on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gombe United vs Lobi Stars?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lobi Stars win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Gombe United 20%, draw 23%, Lobi Stars 57%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lobi Stars) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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