Stal Mielec 1-3 Legia Warszawa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.65
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
45%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.49
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 29% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
8.46
1/2
10%
23.6
1/X
6%
16.15
X/1
10%
10.7
X/2
10%
3.84
X/X
14%
5.21
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.04
2/X
6%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
18%
+10.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.1pp
45%
Away Win
58%
-12.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.3pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 62%
+7% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.14/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/0.96
+2% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -20%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
214 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 76%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.5 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Legia Warszawa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
24.06.2018 Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa 3-2 HT 2-2 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
1-3
AWAY Legia Warszawa
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Warszawa beat Stal Mielec 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Legia Warszawa as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 56% of the ball to Legia Warszawa's 44%, shots finished 7-14.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa?

Stal Mielec 1-3 Legia Warszawa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Legia Warszawa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Warszawa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 29%, draw 26%, Legia Warszawa 45%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Warszawa) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Legia Warszawa)
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