Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.91
Over
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.3
2-3
39%
1.77
4-5
24%
3.33
6+
11%
12.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.89
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
15%
4.9
X/2
15%
7.18
X/X
15%
4.86
2/1
10%
24.65
2/2
11%
5.19
2/X
5%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-6.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+4.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -14%
1.32/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.35
-7% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
21.1 Crosses 18.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.44 xG 1.48
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
343 Passes 356
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-2 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
15.03.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
18.09.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 4-2 HT 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
19.05.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 HT 2-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
04.11.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 3-0 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
08.04.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
2-2
AWAY Stal Mielec
0.83 xG 2.49
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 5
245 Passes 378
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 39
14 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 42% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 58%, shots finished 13-22, expected goals 0.83 to 2.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.67 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec?

Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zaglebie Lubin win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 39%, draw 28%, Stal Mielec 33%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Zaglebie Lubin), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zaglebie Lubin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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