28/04/2025
·
00:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
1-1
Chaves vs Alverca Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
Under 2.5
BTTS Yes
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
28%
Draw
28%
33%
Away Win
29%
51%
Under 2.5
54%
49%
Over 2.5
46%
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
49%
BTTS No
49%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chaves v Alverca — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Chaves
EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY
Alverca
EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% /
-1%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+17% /
+17%
1.42/1.05
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.11/1.46
+4%
/
+14%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+10%
/
+49%
53%
Ball Possession
47%
13
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
266 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
228 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
20.0
Crosses
15.1
2.6
Yellow Cards
2.4
Chaves vs Alverca Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Chaves
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Alverca
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
3.00
1.24
xG
2.06
59%
Ball Possession
41%
16
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Target
3
7
Corners
2
365
Passes
181
85%
Pass Accuracy
75%
25
Crosses
16
2
Yellow Cards
1
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Chaves vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Chaves and Alverca played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
What was the final score of Chaves vs Alverca?
Chaves 0-0 Alverca in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chaves vs Alverca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Chaves 39%, draw 28%, Alverca 33%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chaves), BTTS Yes went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Chaves)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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POR2
More Portugal - 2nd Division
28 Apr 2025