CA Penarol 3-1 Cerro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒00:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.53
No
53%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
26%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
67%
-13.6pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.4pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+9.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
36%
+11.8pp
53%
BTTS No
64%
-11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro EU Bookmakers 14%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.49/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.93
-16% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
357 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Cerro
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.09.2024 Cerro Cerro 0-5 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
10.03.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
19.08.2023 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
04.02.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
16.01.2021 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
16.02.2020 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 1-1 Cerro Cerro URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
3-1
AWAY Cerro
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 3
FAQ CA Penarol vs Cerro
Match summary & frequently asked questions

CA Penarol beat Cerro 3-1 in the Uruguay - Premier League on 28 Apr 2025. Half-time: 2-0.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 60% of the ball to Cerro's 40%, shots finished 10-4.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol have the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for CA Penarol and 0.50 for Cerro.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Cerro?

CA Penarol 3-1 Cerro in the Uruguay - Premier League on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Cerro?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 53%, draw 26%, Cerro 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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28 Apr 2025
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