Gagra 4-0 Saburtalo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 28 May 2024

Gagra
4-0 HT 4-0
Saburtalo
📅28/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Georgia - Erovnuli Liga – 2024

Gagra vs Saburtalo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.71
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
51%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
34%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
18%
+10.5pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.4pp
51%
Away Win
61%
-10.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gagra v Saburtalo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gagra EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 66%
+9% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
0.88/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/0.70
-23% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +28%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Gagra vs Saburtalo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gagra
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Saburtalo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.04.2024 Saburtalo 3-1 HT 2-1 Gagra Gagra GUR
11.11.2023 Gagra Gagra 2-1 HT 0-1 Saburtalo GUR
02.09.2023 Saburtalo 5-0 HT 2-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
20.05.2023 Gagra Gagra 1-2 HT 0-2 Saburtalo GUR
01.04.2023 Saburtalo 3-0 HT 2-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
08.10.2022 Saburtalo 2-1 HT 1-0 Gagra Gagra GUR

Gagra 4-0 Saburtalo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gagra
4-0
AWAY Saburtalo
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 22
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gagra vs Saburtalo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gagra cruised past Saburtalo 4-0.

Our pre-match lean was Saburtalo at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gagra had 41% of the ball to Saburtalo's 59%, shots finished 11-22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gagra and 2.67 for Saburtalo.

What was the final score of Gagra vs Saburtalo?

Gagra 4-0 Saburtalo in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 28/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gagra vs Saburtalo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Gagra 28%, draw 21%, Saburtalo 51%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Saburtalo), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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