Valmiera / BSS 4-0 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 28 May 2024

📅28/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.28
Draw
23%
5.28
Away
20%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
74%
-16.8pp
23%
Draw
16%
+7.1pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+9.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.2pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 14%
-13% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +24%
1.93/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/2.10
-5% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +11%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
434 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 74%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
31.1 Crosses 13.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valmiera / BSS
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.13 xG 1.21
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
330 Passes 207
75% Pass Accuracy 65%
27 Box Touches 20
28 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
18.04.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-3 HT 0-1 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
05.11.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-1 HT 0-1 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
13.08.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 2-2 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
05.06.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
24.04.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 2-0 HT 2-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
20.11.2020 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-2 HT 1-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valmiera / BSS
4-0
AWAY FS Jelgava
2.00 xG 0.70
69% Ball Possession 31%
26 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
507 Passes 166
85% Pass Accuracy 63%
31 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Valmiera / BSS vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valmiera / BSS cruised past FS Jelgava 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Valmiera / BSS as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Valmiera / BSS had 69% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 31%, shots finished 26-14, expected goals 2.00 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valmiera / BSS had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Valmiera / BSS and 1.00 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of Valmiera / BSS vs FS Jelgava?

Valmiera / BSS 4-0 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 28/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valmiera / BSS vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Valmiera / BSS 57%, draw 23%, FS Jelgava 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valmiera / BSS), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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28 May 2024
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