Ahlafors IF 4-3 Grebbestads IF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland, 28 Jun 2024

📅28/06/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.96
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.38
No
41%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-4.0pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.1pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+10.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-10.8pp
59%
BTTS Yes
68%
-9.0pp
41%
BTTS No
32%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ahlafors IF EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Grebbestads IF EU Bookmakers 32%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
3.30/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/2.23
+70% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ahlafors IF
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Grebbestads IF
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
05.04.2024 Grebbestads IF Grebbestads IF 2-2 HT 1-1 Ahlafors IF Ahlafors IF İSÇ4
03.09.2022 Grebbestads IF Grebbestads IF 2-1 HT 1-1 Ahlafors IF Ahlafors IF İSÇ4
08.09.2021 Ahlafors IF Ahlafors IF 3-0 HT 1-0 Grebbestads IF Grebbestads IF İSÇ4
07.07.2021 Grebbestads IF Grebbestads IF 0-1 HT 0-0 Ahlafors IF Ahlafors IF İSÇ4
12.09.2020 Grebbestads IF Grebbestads IF 4-1 HT 2-1 Ahlafors IF Ahlafors IF İSÇ4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ahlafors IF
4-3
AWAY Grebbestads IF
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ahlafors IF vs Grebbestads IF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ahlafors IF squeezed past Grebbestads IF 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ahlafors IF as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Ahlafors IF had 54% of the ball to Grebbestads IF's 46%, shots finished 16-8.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Ahlafors IF and 1.60 for Grebbestads IF.

What was the final score of Ahlafors IF vs Grebbestads IF?

Ahlafors IF 4-3 Grebbestads IF in the Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland on 28/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ahlafors IF vs Grebbestads IF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ahlafors IF win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ahlafors IF 45%, draw 22%, Grebbestads IF 33%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ahlafors IF), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ahlafors IF) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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