Tochigi SC 3-1 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 28 Jun 2025

📅28/06/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.9pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.0pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.2pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tochigi SC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 32%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
0.49/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.08
-63% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
307 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses 15.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tochigi SC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
10.10.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 HT 0-1 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
23.05.2021 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 3-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
04.11.2020 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 HT 0-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
13.09.2020 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 1-1 HT 1-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
10.08.2014 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 HT 1-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
13.04.2014 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 1-2 HT 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tochigi SC
3-1
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
36% Ball Possession 64%
20 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
183 Passes 395
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tochigi SC got the better of Matsumoto Yamaga 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Tochigi SC made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tochigi SC had 36% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 64%, shots finished 20-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Tochigi SC and 0.83 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

What was the final score of Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Tochigi SC 3-1 Matsumoto Yamaga in the Japan - J3 League on 28/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tochigi SC win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Tochigi SC 39%, draw 29%, Matsumoto Yamaga 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tochigi SC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tochigi SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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