Riga Mariners 3-1 Smiltene — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 28 Jun 2025

📅28/06/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.89
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
Over 2.5
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.38
No
44%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+1.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
68%
-12.6pp
44%
BTTS No
32%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Riga Mariners EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Smiltene EU Bookmakers 32%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +59% / +59%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.96/0.52
-55% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
354 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Riga Mariners vs Smiltene
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga Mariners got the better of Smiltene 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Riga Mariners as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Riga Mariners vs Smiltene?

Riga Mariners 3-1 Smiltene in the Latvia - 1st Division on 28/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Riga Mariners vs Smiltene?

Before kick-off our model rated a Riga Mariners win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Riga Mariners 50%, draw 23%, Smiltene 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga Mariners), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Riga Mariners) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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