Al Ahed 4-2 Shabab Al Sahel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lebanon - Premier League, 28 Jun 2026

📅28/06/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
15%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.86
Over 2.5
57%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
58%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
15%
Away Win
18%
-3.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
50%
-6.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
50%
+6.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.3pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahed EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Shabab Al Sahel EU Bookmakers 21%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -35% / -35%
1.29/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.42
-38% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -7%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahed
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Shabab Al Sahel
4.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.12.2025 Shabab Al Sahel Shabab Al Sahel 2-1 HT 1-1 Al Ahed Al Ahed LUBN
30.03.2025 Shabab Al Sahel Shabab Al Sahel 1-8 HT 1-2 Al Ahed Al Ahed LUBN
POST-MATCH Al Ahed vs Shabab Al Sahel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahed saw off Shabab Al Sahel 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Ahed as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 4.50 goals for Al Ahed and 1.50 for Shabab Al Sahel.

What was the final score of Al Ahed vs Shabab Al Sahel?

Al Ahed 4-2 Shabab Al Sahel in the Lebanon - Premier League on 28/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahed vs Shabab Al Sahel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahed win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Al Ahed 59%, draw 26%, Shabab Al Sahel 15%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahed), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahed) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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LUBN More Lebanon - Premier League
28 Jun 2026
21:30 Jwaya vs Safa Analysis →