Elfsborg 1-2 Djurgarden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 28 Jul 2024

Elfsborg
1-2 HT 1-1
Djurgarden
📅28/07/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

Elfsborg vs Djurgarden Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.82
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.21
6+ Goals
13%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.85
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
10%
12.9
X/1
14%
4.78
X/2
11%
6.92
X/X
11%
4.99
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.0
2/2
18%
4.76
2/X
5%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-6.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+6.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.7pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Elfsborg v Djurgarden — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Djurgarden EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.50/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.16
+40% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 82%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
21.0 Crosses 20.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Elfsborg vs Djurgarden Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elfsborg
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Djurgarden
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.81 xG 1.52
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
272 Passes 446
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.05.2024 Djurgarden Djurgarden 2-0 HT 0-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
22.07.2023 Djurgarden Djurgarden 0-4 HT 0-3 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
04.06.2023 Elfsborg Elfsborg 1-1 HT 0-0 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇ
29.08.2022 Djurgarden Djurgarden 2-1 HT 2-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
09.05.2022 Elfsborg Elfsborg 0-0 HT 0-0 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇ
18.10.2021 Djurgarden Djurgarden 0-3 HT 0-1 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ

Elfsborg 1-2 Djurgarden — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elfsborg
1-2
AWAY Djurgarden
0.81 xG 1.05
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
398 Passes 308
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Elfsborg vs Djurgarden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Djurgarden edged past Elfsborg 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Djurgarden found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Elfsborg had 56% of the ball to Djurgarden's 44%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 0.81 to 1.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Elfsborg and 0.83 for Djurgarden.

What was the final score of Elfsborg vs Djurgarden?

Elfsborg 1-2 Djurgarden in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elfsborg vs Djurgarden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elfsborg win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Elfsborg 39%, draw 26%, Djurgarden 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Elfsborg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Elfsborg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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